Four days from August 2nd and still no debt ceiling deal and a very likely first-ever downgrade of America’s credit rating… Let’s clear our heads for a second and try and see the forest through the trees: Bonds and the Dollar Consensus would have it that a U.S. credit downgrade would cause the dollar, as [...]

The insomniacs in Washington received letters this morning from the heads of every major bank in the country, imploring them to stop the politicking and finish the business at hand… While I don’t know whether they plead for a deal that deals real reform or simply a raising of the debt ceiling, I’d bet, in [...]

You may know me, as an advisor and a writer (Making Lemonade, a Bright View on Investing, on the Economy and on the Financial Markets), to be an optimist. I’ve defended my bent over the years by pointing out how, in America, optimism, as history has shown, has been synonymous with realism… And while I [...]

In one respect (short-term marketwise) I find the whole debt ceiling issue a yawn-inspiring event… Think about it; what’s the likelihood that we hit August 2nd without a deal on raising the government’s self-imposed credit limit? I’m thinking the political risk is way too high, which is what the equity market has discounted to this [...]