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Beware the Supposers
Suppose I told you that the consensus among economists this time last year was that GDP would be clicking along at a 4% rate right about now, or that home sales would be on the rise, or that unemployment would be trending lower. If you’re like most people, you wouldn’t bat an eye at these [...]
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Everyone Else Votes
Speeches have been made, books have been written, documentaries produced – all attempting to explain what caused the greatest recession since The Great Depression. Some fault the Fed, others the politicians, still others Wall Street, while some even point the finger at us lowly consumers. Who you are, your political affiliation perhaps, or your tendency [...]
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Q and A
In light of all that’s going on these days, I think it’s time we eavesdrop once again on Q and A, our investor/advisor duo. As usual Q is a bit sideways over the stock market and needs to talk. Please pardon the redundancy, and simplicity, of these conversations. But, in terms of redundancy, just consider [...]
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Rocky Road
I have absolutely discovered the secret to successful parenting (i.e., getting my kid to do what I tell him without screaming). I have learned how to motivate my youngest to behave, to work hard in school, and even, without prodding, to do his household chores. And it has nothing to do with instilling values, setting [...]
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Don’t Be a Chicken!
One day last week: It’s 7:30am New York time and I’ve already received like a dozen text messages this morning from CNBC. The last one announced that housing starts for June came in less than expected, or was it that England left their interest rates unchanged, or was it that Australia raised theirs again, or [...]
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No Magic Pill
Ever notice how certain fundamental truths seem to transcend multiple industries? Chapter 4 of Super Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner’s sequel to their best-seller, Freakonomics) cites (and I summarize) evidence from a series of widespread doctor strikes in Los Angeles, Israel, and Columbia, that shows the death rate dropping significantly, from 18% to 50%, in the [...]
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